March 17
Oil, the Dollar, and the Balance of Power
Unless you ride a bicycle to work each day, you are probably aware that gasoline prices have been rising sharply in the past few weeks. New York 's main oil contract, light sweet crude, has now reached $111 per barrel. Gasoline pump prices have hit a new record of $3.26 a gallon.
The surge in crude is being supported by a weak dollar and ever-tightening energy supplies. As oil rises, the dollar tumbles. This past week, the greenback set a series of new lows against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc.
"The oil market is soaring to unprecedented heights primarily due to funds and the speculators putting money into oil and other commodities," said Victor Shum, an analyst with Purvin and Gertz energy consultancy in Singapore.
"Money always looks for better returns," he said, adding investors who are flush with cash see commodities offering "a hedge against the weakening dollar and inflation."
OPEC will likely earn $927 billion from oil exports this year, the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration said. If the price of oil continues to climb, OPEC could see its first trillion dollar windfall.
Nothing good can come from all this oil money flowing into the hands of Islamic states. Every dollar we pay for Arab oil goes into Islamic schools to teach Muslims how to destroy the West. If they don’t want to destroy us, they can buy us out. It would only take a dozen years for the cartel to purchase all the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial average.
Our leaders in Washington have done little to combat our growing dependency on Arab oil. President Bush has made several fruitless pleas for OPEC increase oil production. Vice President Dick Cheney has even been dispatched to Saudi Arabia to beg the sheiks to turn up the taps.
It’s not going to do any good to bow before these Arab leaders. They would gladly bleed us dry like some giant leech. Iran had been actively seeking ways to harm our economy.
There are plenty of solutions to the problem of dwindling oil reserves, but we should have been investing in alternative energy decades ago. If we found a replacement for fossil fuel, it would take many years to make the switch.
A large portion of our massive trade imbalance is the result of oil we import. Years of deficits with the rest of the world are starting to take a toll on our economy. The situation is now at the point where forces are moving under their own momentum. Oil is rising because the dollar is falling, and the dollar is falling because the oil is rising.
I find it stunning that oil has been able to soar without creating a huge public outcry. I just cringe when I have to gas up my car. Just a couple of years ago, I was able fill my tank for $20, and it now costs me $40. By this summer, it may cost me $50 to $60 to gas up.
I think the main reason for so much complacency in the face of all these bad economic signs is the false belief that things can’t suddenly get worse. The truth is, disaster can strike at any time. Last week, the CEO for Bear Sterns, the third-largest brokerage company in the nation, was saying everything was fine with their balance sleet. Three days later, revelations of bad mortgage loans caused a sudden mass exist of its trading partners, nearly bringing the firm to the point of bankruptcy. Because America is on the tail end of the business days, we could wake up one morning to the news that the dollar has collapsed on foreign exchange markets.
There are already plenty of cracks in our financial dike. Several oil states are starting to question the soundness of using the American currency for their oil trades. The United Arab Emirates has just announced that they have put together a task force to discuss de-linking their currency with the dollar. Last year, Kuwait surprised the markets by unhooking the dinar with the dollar. Qatar is also thinking making a similar move.
The decupling of the dollar from key oil markets is one force pushing the commodity prices higher. If this trend continues, some Wall Street analysts are predicting we could soon see crude trading above the $200 level.
Oil is a finite resource that is essential to all modern industrial nations. The Bible predicts that global conflict will arise in the last days as all major powers send their armies toward the Middle East. The final battle, just before Christ’s return, could simply be a struggle over who controls the supply of oil.
-- Todd
Rumors of Peace
Peace is perhaps the most prevalent issue on the minds of mankind in these volatile times. The rumors of war that look to be much like those prophesied by Jesus in His Olivet Discourse (Matthew Chapter 24) are on the increase, when thinking upon things brewing in the Middle East. This region threatens to break out in violence between Israel and her enemy neighbors at any moment, an action that could swiftly progress to a much larger conflict involving atomic weaponry. This must be avoided at all costs, therefore every effort at peace is explored by the internationalist powers that be.
Some efforts at squashing war before it can get started are genuine. Others look suspiciously to be simply repositioning in ways that will help those involved secure advantage for themselves in one way or the other. That’s how I view most peace initiatives taking place in the region in and around the so-called “holy land.”
The endeavor to quell the likelihood of conflagration in the Mideast is often found in disseminating rumors of peace. These strange, diametrically opposite war and peace matters–and their genuine/self-serving repositioning stratagem--are wrapped up at one and the same time in the "Roadmap to Peace."
Time and time again we hear the various tactics about to be employed in order to bring the antagonists to the table of peace. These “rumors of peace” are, indeed, for preventing war in the region. But, the reasons for wanting that peace is not merely so people of the region will get along, thus enjoy a life free of fear of any moment attack. The reasons are more steeped in 1) making sure World War III doesn’t spring from such conflict; 2) that the parties involved in the peace-making (the “Quartet”) continue to have maximum access to the massive petroleum reserves; 3) that a presence is maintained by the American/European/Russian referees that keep Israel and her enemies separated.
We who observe conditions in that region from the perspective of Bible prophecy note that the peace plan never seems to get installed. Peace never eventuates from the actions of the diplomatic community.
George W. Bush has promised a peace agreement involving establishing a Palestinian state before he leaves office. We could be surprised, but other than the rumors, there seems nothing substantial in that peace coming to fruition. And the days of the current presidential administration are dwindling. We are dealing with rumors of peace at the same time we are dealing with rumors of war.
Peace is defined as:
1. The normal, nonwarring condition of a nation, group of nations, or the world.
2. (Often initial capital letter) An agreement or treaty between warring or antagonistic nations, groups, etc., to end hostilities and abstain from further fighting or antagonism: the Peace of Ryswick.
3. A state of mutual harmony between people or groups, esp. in personal relations: Try to live in peace with your neighbors.
4. The normal freedom from civil commotion and violence of a community; public order and security: He was arrested for being drunk and disturbing the peace.
5. Cessation of or freedom from any strife or dissension.
6. Freedom of the mind from annoyance, distraction, anxiety, an obsession, etc.; tranquillity; serenity.
7. A state of tranquillity or serenity: May he rest in peace.
8. A state or condition conducive to, proceeding from, or characterized by tranquillity: the peace of a mountain resort.
9. Silence; stillness: The cawing of a crow broke the afternoon's peace. (Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2006).
Those definitions pretty much cover the meanings of the word “peace” in human terms. But fulfillment of the definitions to any great extent is far, far from this generation–like it has been from every generation of the past.
True peace in this fallen realm, you see, is not possible in the physical or even psychological sense. We are at every point dealing with mere “rumors” of peace. Here is why: “From whence come wars and fightings among you? come they not hence, even of your lusts that war in your members? Ye lust, and have not: ye kill, and desire to have, and cannot obtain: ye fight and war, yet ye have not, because ye ask not” (James 4:1-2).
We remember the headlines of this past week to understand what the apostle James was, under divine inspiration, telling us. We look at the governor of New York and his power trip in most every facet of life. His drives took peace from every corner of life in America, his family, his state, his nation. His action stirred only turmoil.
[“There is] no peace, saith the LORD, unto the wicked” (Isa. 48:22). All of fallen mankind is wicked. There is none good, no, not one, the Scripture tells us. The only “good” is in Jesus Christ, who came to take away the sin of the world. When the individual turns over his or her soul to Christ for salvation, He then can bring true peace that is absolutely elusive under any other prescription for conducting life on this decaying planet. Even those who are Christ’s (have become born again into the family of God) must submit moment by moment to Christ, to receive God’s peace within their innermost being.
“And the peace of God, which passeth all understanding, shall keep your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus” (Phil. 4:7).
All efforts at achieving peace are just rumors of peace unless those efforts have Jesus at their center. Whether thinking on the individual life, from which all war-making begins according to James 4:1-2, about society, geoeconomics and geopolitics, or any other frame of reference concerning the human condition, if Christ is left out of the equation for achieving peace, there will be no peace.
Considering modern Israel and the rumors of peace in particular, here’s what God’s Word says about His daughter, Israel, and the world’s dealing in the process of peace involving that nation: “For they have healed the hurt of the daughter of my people slightly, saying, Peace, peace; when [there is] no peace” (Jer. 8:11).
Thankfully, Christ will one day–perhaps very soon—return to bring true peace, rather than the rumors of peace in our daily headlines today.
--Terry
