April 7
Why Grain Prices Are So High
For the past couple of years, news about the price of oil has dominated the headlines. In recent weeks, there has been a growing concern over the soaring prices for grains.
The spot price for wheat, corn and soybean have doubled and tripled in price since 2005. Just last week, corn prices jumped to a record $6 a bushel, driven up by cold, wet weather in parts of the U.S. corn belt that may force farmers to delay spring planting.
In February, wheat spiked to an all-time high of $13.495 a bushel. Weather remains a big concern for this commodity. Excessive dryness in parts of Oklahoma and Texas is threatening to severely damage the hard-red winter wheat crop. Meanwhile, heavy rain in Kentucky, Missouri and southern Illinois has flooded soft-red winter wheat crops, further driving prices up.
There are four long-term forces unrelated to weather that are putting upward pressure on grain prices.
1. In the 1990s we had a huge problem with too much corn. We were producing more corn than the world could consume. When oil began to rise, ethanol biofuel seemed like the perfect solution. We could cut our dependence on foreign oil by growing our own fuel. I live in a farming state, but I think this a bad strategy. If you run out a gas for your car, you can always walk. If you run out of food, you end up starving. Despite the rising criticism of biofuels, the U.S. corn-fed ethanol industry enjoys wide political support.
2. Another factor is the economic growth in the third world. As citizens become wealthier, they acquire more of an appetite for meat to make their bodies run. As Alec Walsh, an analyst at Harding, Loevner Management, noted, consumption of pork in China has doubled since 1990. And more meat means more grain: It takes up to five tons of grain to produce a ton of meat.
3. The rising price of energy contributes to the problem. As crude oil and natural gas rise, the cost of production gets passed on to the price of food. Fertilizer, farm equipment, and the transportation of grain from the field to store shelves are all very energy intensive.
4. The fourth factor is the booming population. The number of people on planet earth is increasing, but the increase in grain production has not been keeping pace. The urbanization of once-productive farmland is overriding any gains in crop yields.
For over a decade, the supply of grain has been slowly shrinking. Our suppliers are now at history lows.
World Bank President Robert Zoellick, in a speech last week, called for world leaders to address the looming food crisis. He said, "The World Bank Group estimates that 33 countries around the world face potential social unrest because of the acute hike in food and energy prices. For these countries, where food comprises from half to three quarters of consumption, there is no margin for survival."
There are already signs that the supply system is at a breaking points. The soaring price of food staples is triggering consumer panic, including food riots in Yemen and Morocco, and hoarding in Hong Kong. Mexican peasants have been venting their frustration over the rising price of tortillas, a flat bread made of white cornmeal.
Several governments around the world have already taken radical measures in recent weeks to control their countries' supplies of rice. Egypt said last week it would ban all rice exports for six months. Cambodia has stopped all private-sector exports of rice, and India and Vietnam also have imposed restrictions.
All it would take to push the world into chaos is a large drought in a key food-producing nation. I drove through eastern Kansas last week, and could see first-hand the waterlogged fields that are evidence that the nation is already off to a shaky start.
The Bible very plainly says that the last days will be plagued by famine. Just as oil is a catalyst for prophetic progression, hunger on a massive scale would set the wheel of Bible prophecy into motion.
“And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, a measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine” (Rev. 6:6).
-- Todd
Tulsa Prophecy Ponderings
The 2008 Mid-America Prophecy Conference at Tulsa, Oklahoma has come and gone, and I wanted to think with you just a bit on perspectives gleaned while there this past week.
Conference speakers, some of whom have been my personal friends for many years, provided insights from discernment that can be found only in God’s servants who have devoted their lives to submitting to His will while they undertake study of these end times. There seemed a collective sense during this conference, unlike most of recent vintage, that the almost eerie lull in which we find ourselves, prophetically speaking, might foreshadow significant things just ahead.
The speakers presented perspectives on those possibilities from varied and fascinating viewpoints.
David Reagan spoke on the imminency of the second coming and the thrilling prospects that event promises for believers and portends for non-believers. Reagan gave the conference attendees masterfully presented insights into Israel's primary role in the end-times. He moved the audience with a profound look into how the Jewish people have been satanically persecuted throughout their history, and why Satan was--and remains-- intent on killing every Jewish person.
Walid Shoebat, a one-time Muslim now converted to Christianity, included as part of his several lectures some fellow speakers asking him questions, which made for a different but interesting slant on prophetic matters discussed. His focus was, in part, on how Islam is not a peaceful religion, like many are trying to portray it. He presented the origin of the Israel land controversy, going in-depth about how there was no such thing as a Palestinian, providing historical examples that proved the word “Palestine” came from ancient Rome, with the Caesar so naming the region in order to take away the Jews' legitimate claim to their promised land. He gave the facts about Rome using the region’s former inhabitants, the history of the Philistines, in making up the name “Palestine." Shoebat, a former Islamic terrorist, expressed and expounded upon the subject of frustration for most all of the attendees, presenting the case for why there is many who make excuses for terrorists, saying they are justified in their murderous acts--when there is no excuse.
Mike Gendron, a former Catholic, spoke on Roman Catholicism and his belief that that powerful religious system will be the nucleus of the forming one-world religion. He spoke passionately on the importance of witnessing to the soul-saving power of Jesus Christ in these closing days of the Church Age.
Gary Fisher, as we have come to expect from him, gave a masterful presentation on Israel and that nation’s all-important part in the mix of end-time matters. He spoke on proof of the nearness of the return of Christ, based in large part upon Israel’s juxtaposition against the other nations of Planet Earth today.
Les Feldick, host lecturer of a long-standing television program on biblical studies, spoke on signs of the rapture--signs of the second coming. I had never met Mr. Feldick, but found him personally engaging in private conversation. He proved to be a Bible teacher with a special gift for making one feel as if sitting in private conversation when receiving his teaching. His thorough knowledge of Bible prophecy, in particular, is compelling.
Phillip Goodman, host of the Tulsa Mid-America Prophecy Conference--and, if I may digress for a moment of personal interjection, one of my closest friends--spoke on the imminent rapture of the church. He also addressed, with a level of expertise few possess, the coming Russian-Islamic invasion of Israel as found in the Gog-Magog events of Ezekiel, chapters 38 and 39. He indicated that the major players are in place for this showdown between Gog and Israel’s great protector. The current world, he believes, is configuring in ways that forewarn a soon-coming explosion in the Middle East.
Jeremy Hall, a citizen of Canada and co-host of a prophecy conference held in his country, spoke on exposing false doctrine, and how Christians can be insulated against the terrible effects of lies from the false teachers, only if steeped in God’s Word and prayer. I found Mr. Hall a quite thoroughly furnished lecturer, in both his gift for speaking and in well-studied acumen. His mature level of understanding and ability to impart that understanding to those in attendance is particularly gratifying to see in one young in physical years. He spoke on the millennium, expressing reasons he believes the pre-trib view of the rapture is the correct view while the other primary views of rapture fall short of meeting biblical parameters for that great event.
Joe Lawendowski traveled from Alaska to bring the conference attendees a fascinating and pertinent perspectives on eschatological events being set on God’s end-times stage. He spoke on "Babylon: Past, Present and Future." His being stationed in Iraq while in the U.S. military gave insights few have the privilege of accumulating, then using as part of Bible study on end-times matters. His presentation included photographs of the area where ancient Babylon sat. His pictures of still-existing bricks that were etched with the name of "Nebuchadnezzar" held the attention of those in attendance, while Lawendowski’s excellent lecture covered Babylon and its past, present, and future relevance to Bible prophecy. Jeremy Hall and Joe Lawendowski are partners in a ministry, and are joint hosts of the Canadian prophecy conference.
On another note of interest about the Tulsa conference: I was priviledged to pose interview questions to each of the conference speakers as part of filming during early preparation for a documentary I’ve been asked to help put together. The documentary at this point is intended to be seven one-hour shows in a series on end-times things. It will, God willing, air at a future date on A&E, Discovery Channel, The History Channel, or perhaps one of the broadcast networks.
The series will include many other writers, speakers and scholars on Bible prophecy, including Todd Strandberg, and myself. Todd and I ask, on behalf of all involved in the project, that you lift prayers that God’s will be done at every step of the way in this effort.
--Terry
