Oct 29
Are We at 'Peak Oil'?
There never has been any doubt that mankind will eventually run out of fossil fuel. At one point, there were 3 trillion barrels of oil in the ground. That number is now down to 2 trillion barrels, and our current technology only allows us to extract around 1 trillion barrels.
The big question is when we will reach the point of peak oil. Coined by American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert, the phrase "peak oil" is the point or time frame at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached. After this time frame, the rate of production will enter terminal decline. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve. This does not mean oil will suddenly "run out," but the supply of cheap conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically.
Hubbert correctly predicted in 1956 that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States around 1965-1970. The exact peak year was 1970. Hubbert went on to predict that global production would peak in "about half a century," or 2006.
The German-based Energy Watch Group released a report saying the world's oil production did indeed peak in 2006, and from now on, it will drop by around 3 percent a year. The group says that by as early as 2030, the global availability of oil will be half of what it was at its peak.
"It's a very serious result," said Hans-Josef Fell, a German lawmaker who commissioned the report. "I fear the world will come into a big economic crisis in the coming years."
The report warns that coal, uranium, and other key fossil fuels are also in declining supply. It predicts the fall in fossil fuel production will bring with it the threat of war, humanitarian disaster, and general social unrest.
Anyone doubting that the supply of oil has peaked should consider what little effect soaring prices have had on production. Since the spring of 2004, a barrel of petroleum has tripled in price. Oil production by all the top line U.S. energy companies has fallen.
Just this past week, there was alarming news that OPEC, the world’s only source of spare capacity, has failed to raise its production quota. On word of the news, crude quickly leaped over 5 bucks to a record $92.22 per barrel on the global mercantile exchange. Unless new production comes online, $100 per barrel oil is an absolute certainty in the near future.
The global consumption of crude is now at 88 million barrels per day. By 2015, it is projected to rise to 110 million barrels per day. We don’t need math engineers to figure out that falling production and soaring demand spell calamity.
China 's boom economy is the source of much of the new demand for oil. A large portion of its foreign policy is now focused on the Middle East.
Since the beginning of the decade, China has signed hundreds of investment deals with Persian Gulf states and pushed its companies to set up in the region. Many Arab oil emirates look kindly on China ’s growing energy appetite, viewing economic relations with Beijing as less cumbersome than those with Washington . " China is not in favor of democracy being pushed down the throats of countries in the region," said N. Janardhan, a political analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai , United Arab Emirates (Philadelphia Inquirer, January 25, 2006).
The press loves to talk about green energy as the magic cure for our dependence on fossil fuel. Wind, geothermal energy, solar power, and biofuel will not produce enough energy to bridge the gap. Gasoline is extremely efficient source of power. To run a car on a battery requires ten times the space of a gas-powered vehicle. Of course, the extra weight would make the car too heavy to operate.
The only real answer to our energy needs is nuclear fusion, the same force that powers our sun. After decades of empty promises, man is still nowhere close to finding a way of containing the enormously high temperatures involved in a fusion reaction.
It is easy see to petroleum as the catalyst behind much of end-time Bible prophecy. The lure of black gold may be what entices China to send a 200-million soldier army into the Middle East. It could also be a factor in why the leader of Europe will set up his headquarters in this region.
Relief may be coming very soon to the energy markets. When the rapture takes place, oil usage will drop dramatically in the U.S. and other Christian nations. I guess this is good for the Antichrist. After all, you can't drive an armored personal carrier into the battle of Armageddon on an empty gas tank.
-- Todd
U.S.A. – God’s Parenthetic Nation
My take on the possibility of God’s sending geophysical judgment-like warnings of correction to America (or any people, for that matter) has been called, in no uncertain terms, “crap theology” --if you will pardon my repeating the condemnation jabbed at yours truly by someone not long ago. So, this commentary will doubtless not be well received by those who see only coincidence in the horrendous fires breaking out in California almost simultaneously with California Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger signing into law SB777. That is the new law stipulating that there must not be any mention of immorality with regard to homosexuality within the textbooks or curricula of California’s public schools. Further, the law provides protection to those who promote such alternative lifestyles to heterosexuality in schools across that state. Part of the governor’s approved movement into gender neutrality is the absolute reprobate proposition that boys and girls can choose which of the gender-marked restrooms they wish to utilize.
Sorry, my dear friends of the contrary mindset in this matter, but I see a dramatic instance of God’s mighty finger of His displeasure pointing through the headlines we watched, read, and heard this past week. I believe with all that is within my spirit that God is pointing in growing anger to the fact that America is continuing to slap him in His face with down-spiraling disobedience to His holy ways of righteousness. It is in this context that I’ve titled this week’s Nearing Midnight commentary: “U.S.A. – God’s Parenthetic Nation.”
God works in strange but wonderful ways with parentheses. For example, there is a monumental parenthesis in God’s dealing with mankind between weeks 69 and 70 of Daniel’s 70 weeks prophecy. I won’t go into detail here for sake of brevity. But, to learn all about the prophet Daniel’s 70 weeks prophecy, look up the many articles written by Dr. Thomas Ice by that title on raptureready.com.
God’s Word skips right across time–to this point almost 2,000 years from the time of Jesus’ crucifixion until some point in the future when that same crucified and resurrected Jesus will shout: “Come up here!” The intervening period of years is that parenthesis of which I write. We call it the Church Age, or the Age of Grace. When the Church goes to be with Christ as outlined in 1 Corinthians 15:51-55 and 1 Thessalonians 4:13-18, the parenthesis of the Age of Grace will be closed. Daniel’s 70th week will begin, then, when Antichrist signs a peace contract between Israel and her enemies.
By analogy, America, in my view, is a parenthesis in God’s dealing with mankind. God has seen fit to not mention this, inarguably the greatest nation to ever exist, so far as technological development and wealth is concerned. The United States is a mystery of sorts. It is mentioned nowhere in the Bible by name–nor even by inference, in my thinking.
I know that many see America in Isaiah, Jeremiah, and other books of prophecy. I see America in type in those books, but I don't see the prophets actually and specifically pointing to this nation. Yet God has so obviously chosen America for spectacular feats. Again, for brevity, I mention the most spectacular –acting as midwife for the birth of modern Israel, and as her protector, in human terms, to this point in history. Also, this nation has disseminated the Gospel message throughout the world –a thing no other nation has done.
A prudent question to ask is: Since God has so obviously chosen the U.S.A. to do such an important job, would He not then bless it? Also, would He not hold it to an extremely high standard, in keeping with His unchanging edict: “…For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required…” (Luke 12: 48b)?
Now, here is where I get in trouble with the “crap theology” flame throwers who see the events of recent headlines as coincidence.
I believe God has put this nation this past week in another type of parenthesis. On the left coast are the fires of perhaps unprecedented scope –certainly unprecedented in modern times. On the right coast has been drought of what the most optimistic meteorologists are calling a drought of the 100-year sort.
As if underlined by God's finger of corrective warning, the southernmost borders of America have experienced torrential flooding in recent days. We don’t have to go back too far to remember Katrina, from which much of that region hasn’t fully recovered. (That hurricane and subsequent flood coming while the pro-homosexual horde planned a massive parade/rally in New Orleans.)
Is it mere coincidence that God’s most profound judgments have been, and will be, with water and fire? The antediluvian flood of Noah’s day. The fire of Lot’s day. The fires that will burn much of Planet Earth’s greenery during the tribulation. Fire that will remake the heavens and the earth.
Am I intimating that the fires in California, the drought along the easternmost borders, or the flood waters of the southern-central borders are God’s wrath upon America? No. His wrath –His judgment--is reserved, is building, for that time of tribulation (Revelation chapters 4-18). But, the Lord of creation is, I’m convinced with great conviction, putting his finger of corrective warning upon this nation, the nation to which all others look with envy and aspiration to attain like standard of life.
America has been markedly in societal/cultural decline over the last 100 years or so. The year 1963 and our leaders’ choosing to kick God out of public schools, followed 10 years later by the decision to make legal murdering babies in their mothers’ wombs, began a veritable free-fall into our present state of debauched, debased affairs. Homosexuality is “normed” in our most populous state; the American government becomes the enemy of God by turning from protecting Israel to pressuring Israel’s leaders to give its land –even to the dividing of Jerusalem, the one place on earth the Lord calls the apple of His eye.
And, now the nation is framed in corrective parenthesis by the God who has used this country as a golden cup full of His blessings for the spreading of the Gospel through the communications technologies U.S. genius has produced. The parenthesis will soon dissipate, and things will again seem “as usual.” But, listen, Christians. Listen to the whisper in the ears of your spirit. Hear our Lord speak the words meant not only for His chosen nation Israel those millennia ago, but also for a special nation chosen by Him for these closing days of the age.
Judgment begins in the house of the Lord, the Scripture warns. Turn from the feel-good, do-good self-immersion, inward-turning false doctrine/theology that tickles your itching, egocentric ears.
Our Lord is talking to Christians in America perhaps more than to any other people who have walked the planet’s surface. It is a Scripture we always hear in times of crisis. I really believe that we had indeed better heed it this time. It was issued not just for His people, Israel, but for His people, which include you and me: “If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land” (2 Chron. 7:14).
--Terry
