Current-Events Watchman Bulletin #2
Some watchman accounts on social media and many mainstream media outlets have embraced and pushed Iran’s claim that she has developed hypersonic missiles—as her Fattah-1 and her Kheibar Shekan-2. But according to the majority of military experts in Western defense and geo-political-analysis think tanks, this claim is largely hype.
Bradley Bowman, for instance, who is the Senior Director of FDD’s (Foundation for the Defense of Democracies) Center on Military and Political Power, wrote, “Tehran’s claims about new capabilities should be taken with a heavy grain of salt, but it would be a mistake to shrug at Iran’s growing missile capabilities.”
Similar evaluations are found in articles written by the Washington Institute, the Institute for Strategic Studies, and Stimson.
The mistake many are making is confusing hypersonic speed with hypersonic missile capability. Many surface-to-surface missiles (ballistic missiles) cross the hypersonic threshold, but this doesn’t make them hypersonic missiles. The distinguishing feature of a hypersonic missile is the ability to maneuver significantly during atmospheric flight, which makes it extremely difficult to track and shoot down.
The two main classes of hypersonic missiles are HGVs (Hypersonic Glide Vehicles) and HCMs (Hypersonic Cruise Missiles). The former use solid- or liquid-propellant engines. The latter use scramjet air-breathing engines. Unlike ballistic missiles, which follow a predictable path in their flight, hypersonic missiles fly unpredictable paths, posing significant interception challenges.
Currently, the US, Russia, and China have HCM’s in deployment, and many others have development programs. Currently, only Russia and China have HGVs in deployment, though the US is in advanced testing.
Iran’s Fattah missile is advanced and should not be taken lightly. Its second stage works like a MaRV (Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle) and has a limited capability for atmospheric maneuverability during the terminal stretch of its flight. This makes it harder to shoot down during the terminal stretch. The soft underbelly of the Fattah missile (like the other supposed hypersonic missiles in Iran’s arsenal) is that it is vulnerable to interception during the middle stretch of its flight because it flies a predictable path just like a ballistic missile.
The bottom line is, Iran’s current missile arsenal doesn’t contain missiles that can’t be handled with current US and Israeli anti-missile technology. This may change in the future if Iran’s technology advances faster than American and Israeli technology. But I won’t hold my breath.