Populists, Pundits & Paradoxes :: By Wilfred Hahn

Investors and savers almost everywhere are as perplexed as ever. Major changes have swept the globe in recent years. It is important to understand the shifts that are underway, as they will in turn drive future outcomes in the world.

Of course, much of this is not new. We have documented many of the current global macro-trends in past issues. The major alerts to these ongoing epochal shifts have been visible for some time. For example, the financial crises (Global Finance Crisis, GFC) and an apparent shift to populism (as well as other trends) in the political spectrum are the outgrowths.

While such developments have already been evident for quite some time to analysts, only more recently is the fuller picture coming to the attention of the broader public. The loudest bellwethers of these new groundswells were the pro-Brexit vote in Britain and the election of Donald Trump in the United States. These developments shocked many policymakers and globalists. There were many more indications that “populism” was likely to gain momentum (Syriza Party in Greece, Podemos Party in Spain Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, etc.). There are likely more to come, possibly also in France over the next few months.

What is perhaps less visible is the enormous significance of the shifts in global geopolitics. These potentially have monumental implications for economies and financial markets.

During a 60-year period of multilateral and internationalist leanings, the globe was showered with the wealth-enhancing benefits of trade cooperation and globalization. This trend is now reversing … even if only for a time. As long as this pendulum continues to swing to anti-globalization, dangers of conflict will rise exponentially.

The ultracompetitive (and relatively unfettered) policy environment of the past globalization era left a lot of bitter people behind as economic inequality became extreme. As such, a popular backlash has been underway. The globe is now swinging back to imperialism and bilateralism (the kind of policies that were influential in the first half of the last century). Spelling this out, what it means is that a shift to pro-sovereignty and nationalism is underway, in the pursuit of national interests … i.e. America First, Britain First and similar chants. Donald Trump is not the only populist.

With all these changes, understandably, the Main Street and professionals — from economists to money managers — are perplexed. On top of this, investors have had to contend with unconventional monetary policies around the globe. The JCB (Japan Central Bank) and the ECB (European Central Bank) continue to spew QE (Quantitative Easing) onto the world’s liquidity scene of a combined US$1.5 trillion per annum. This causes extreme distortions. It therefore is difficult to determine the true value of financial assets.

It is no surprise that surveys show “geopolitical uncertainty” to be at extreme highs. There exists a mindset that virtually anything can happen. Yet, what is doubly confusing is that despite the high level of uncertainty, financial markets have remained relatively buoyant.

Here, a comment on the U.S.’s role in current conditions is appropriate. Wall Street has been happily celebrating the new promises of corporate tax reductions, eased regulations for the financial sector and a host of other “positive” initiatives of the new Trump administration.

The stock market bonfire since U.S. election day has added as much as $3.3 trillion in value (for which Trump has claimed credit). Is this reasonable? Are the benefits of new Trump policies hugely overblown?

Consider just one statistical reference point. Total income taxes paid by corporations in the U.S. amount to $320 billion per annum. Were tax cuts of a third to be implemented (likely a long shot) the U.S. stock markets will have already appreciated in value by 30 times the expected benefit of lower corporate taxes.

Geopolitical analysts will claim that U.S. presidents are shaped by their global environment and their destiny … not the other way around. Great legacies can only be achieved with a lot of luck and a facilitating backdrop. As such, it is only reasonable to ask the question: How long can the Trump honeymoon continue?

Reason would argue that some disappointment will set in sooner rather than later. Frankly, fulfilling the expectations put upon Trump would require god-like status to achieve. There is an anticipation of a “fantastic and phenomenal” “new tomorrow.” Realistically, anticipations can change abruptly, and to suggest that the current “nirvana” is vulnerable would not be a courageous forecast.

However, there are some complicating factors. Consider that the U.S. stock market at present represents half of the value of the entire world stock market. This compares to the U.S.’s share of the global economy of 25%. U.S. stocks are now the most expensive in 10 years. Furthermore (according to a composite valuation model), U.S. stocks are not the most expensive vs. bonds in 9 years. Finally, the valuation of the U.S. stock markets vs. the rest-of-world (as may already be deduced) is at the highest extreme in modern financial history.

Admittedly, there are a lot of economic problems around the world. China is facing a slowdown and is juggling high debt levels. Japan is still struggling to resume sustainable economic growth. And, the EU is grappling with very serious challenges — internal economic imbalances, possible additional country exits, and the financial indebtedness of some of its member countries.

There exists an unlikely combination of extreme and incongruous conditions in the world at present. The probability of surprises and disappointments seems very high.

For resources on “endtime economics” and to subscribe to the free newsletter, Eternal Value Review, visit Wilfred’s website www.eternalvalue.com or contact him at: staff@eternalvalue.com

About the Author: Wilfred J. Hahn is a global economist/strategist. Formerly a top-ranked global analyst, research director for a major Wall Street investment bank, and head of Canada’s largest global investment operation, his writings focus on the endtime roles of money, economics and globalization. He has been quoted around the world and his writings reproduced in numerous other publications and languages. His 2002 book The Endtime Money Snare: How to live free accurately anticipated and prepared its readers for the Global Financial Crisis. His newest book, Global Financial Apocalypse Prophesied: Preserving true riches in an age of deception and trouble, looks further into the future.

 

Prophesied Final Financial Manipulations :: By Wilfred Hahn

It is a topic that is heavily contested and often misinterpreted. Will there be a cashless world at some point in the future? Cash still plays an essential role in the U.S., facilitating some 40% of transactions. Many countries have an even higher reliance upon cash transactions.

Yet, the Bible clearly indicates that a new global transactional system will exist by the time of the events of Revelation 13. It will indeed be a cashless system. But why the change?

It is a topic we have touched upon before. In an earlier article (See MCM “No One Buy Nor Sell: How Close Are We? Part I,” January 2014), we laid out a broad outline as to what steps must occur before a worldwide controlled transactional system can be operational, in which all buying and selling can be controlled.

In this article, we explore somewhat of a different focus. Why do financial institutions and governments continue to attempt to suppress cash usage; to introduce “cashless” payment systems in our present day, when there is relatively little incentive to do so for consumers?

We may be observing another puzzling example of mankind`s determination to rebel against God`s order, even though it may not make sense.

Senseless Monetary Developments

We observe a nonsensical, conspiracy of “global mankind” playing out in the world’s monetary developments.

Consider that cashless payment systems have been introduced for many decades. Some attempts with digital cards, for example, have been unsuccessful. Do readers remember Mondex (called Visa Cash in North America), which was introduced in the early 1990s? This was a stored-value card. It did not catch on. Nevertheless, the low-level war on removing cash from circulation has continued.

Who is pushing demonetization? It is not consumers. Very few see the need for new money technologies … certainly not the complete abolition of cash. For example, paying with a card at a checkout counter can take 25% to 50% longer than paying with cash. Polls show that consumers are content using physical money for some transactions, and see no reason for its complete eradication.

Also, the claim that a cashless society is safer than one employing physical cash is not verified by facts. Theft and crime involving physical money is actually quite modest when compared to crimes involving physical property (i.e. stolen cars … etc.).

Yet, new money technologies continue to advance, and government anti-cash measures increase. This is even more puzzling, given the fact that electronic payment systems are expensive to set up. Servicing these payment systems is often much more expensive than handling cash.

Clearly, given that an immediate profit motive cannot explain the continued advance of demonetization, there must be other motives. Why do financial institutions and governments continue to push “cashless” payment systems though they are expensive, at best marginally profitable, and capital intensive?

Supposedly, if a one-world financial system could be built which ALL transactions are forced to use, an enormous “rent” could be charged. Such a monopolistic system could be enormously profitable, so long as all other means of payment were supressed or banned. However, to do so requires a “conspiracy” … a worldwide collective agreement … to do so for other peculiar reasons.

Just what might these reasons be? We present several.

  1. The occurrence of negative interest rates in many countries creates a major problem for policymakers, who are trying to steer world economies. Negative interest rates on bank deposits will cause people to move some of their assets to “currency in circulation” (this being cash). This makes sense since one would be avoiding charges to one’s bank account. (Money held in a mattress is more productive than in a bank which charges negative interest.) With negative interest rates, money will leave the banking system. Demonetization, on the other hand, would eliminate this “leakiness” of the money systems. (Some banks in Europe have already eliminated cash handling.)
  2. The more that all transactions can be confined to a cashless payments system, the better governments are able to track Gross Domestic Product (economic activity). In turn, this allows for the maximization of tax revenues. Incidentally, a concerted attempt to achieve this result is now unfolding in India. Higher denomination bills (paper money) are being removed from circulation, in order to force undocumented transactions into the banking system and into the recorded economy. Greece and Portugal (among other nations) recently lowered the maximum transaction size employing cash.
  3. Given the worldwide continuation of financial crisis and the expectation that new and more powerful monetary policy tools will be required, a demonetized system must be in place. This conveniently allows policymaker more options to “control” societies and human actions.
  4. As many studies have shown, cash is filthy—literally. Paper bills can be bacteria laden and covered with fungus or worse. It may be surprising that a very large amount of paper currency is contaminated by drugs such as cocaine. In short, some make the case to do away with cash simply because it would be healthier.

The above-mentioned reasons would certainly satisfy the objectives of various “human” policymakers. In doing so, these global elites show their arrogant perspective: that they know what is best for collective humanity and its future. It fits hand-in-glove with the needs of a one-world ruler, who expressly wishes to ensnare humans and to force them to acknowledge him as god. This is the conspiracy already underway today.

The Last Failed Financial Economist

We return to our earlier question: How can we know that the Bible foretells a cashless monetary system? We read in Revelation 13:15-17: “The second beast was given power […]. It also forced all people, great and small, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hands or on their foreheads, so that they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark, which is the name of the beast or the number of its name.”

Here we see that a global transactional system would be put in place.  It applies to “all” people on earth, no matter their privileged position, economic or political status. Everyone will be subject to this new system. Only those who received the “mark” and worshiped the First Beast (verse 15) were enabled to “buy and sell.” We do not know what form the “mark” will take. However, it can be validly deduced that this transactional system enabled by the “mark” must be centrally controlled.

Logistically, how else could such a system be put into place worldwide? It is not possible to “buy and sell” anything outside of this new system. It must be an impregnable payments system which cannot be circumvented by cash—or even gold.

Prophecy by Choice

As mentioned, Bible prophecy confirms that a “cashless” system will be put in force someday. Though prophesied, it is also true that God does not force mankind to conform to and carry out the fulfillment of His prophecies. In other words, mankind will not develop a cashless society out of obedience to the Bible.

Rather, mankind does so volitionally for his own reasons. Prophecy (oftentimes) reveals in advance what mankind will freely “choose” to do in the future. Yet, at the same time, though human free agency (choice) is involved, all that is prophesied in the Bible will be fulfilled. Admittedly, the logic here may appear convoluted.

It is puzzling to observe that mankind will choose to make unwise choices—inexplicable ones—which show no logic or sense. It is as if humankind would rather spite its nose to its own detriment rather than to be obedient to God. The Psalmist asks a parallel question: “Why do the nations conspire and the peoples plot in vain?” (Psalm 2:1). “The One enthroned in heaven laughs; the Lord scoffs at them” (verse 4).

Next Steps to a Cashless Society

Essentially, for Revelation 13:17 to be fulfilled (grossly simplified), at least four things have to happen:

  1. A globally integrated and closed financial system must exist. Necessary and common technologies must be in place. That means that not even a little bank in Tupelo, Mississippi or the Island of Tuvalu will be able to facilitate any type of transaction (whether buying food or selling a house) outside of this closed system.
  2. A system of central banking must be endorsed everywhere and centrally coordinated. This must result in a commonly-shared monetary philosophy around the world, which, most importantly, achieves a strong influence over market and human behavior. In other words, the entire world must agree to play by the same rules and values, thereby obeying and following the actions of monetary officials (the modern money equivalent to suzerains).
  3. The legal statutes and regulatory institutions that oversee the financial activities of individual countries, must be superseded by a centralized, worldwide authority in order for unified actions to be enforced.
  4. Finally, a unified global “political economy” must exist (either taking the form of a very small group of powerful countries or a single autocrat) that is powerful.

Steps #1 and #2 are largely completed. Stage #3 is underway. However, further development in this direction is difficult. Why? Because individual countries must first give up a measure of sovereignty for this to occur. They will do so only very reluctantly. However, as technocrats and political strategists well know, there is nothing as effective as a crisis to unify political consensus or to compel change. Quoting Milton Friedman (well-known monetarist economist): “Only a crisis, real or perceived, produces real change.”

In desperate times, thinking they have no choice, people will strike bad deals … ceding freedoms and potentially being held hostage. An example of this tendency is shown in the Old Testament Genesis account of the 7 year famine during the time of Joseph. In its later stages, people became so desperate they said: “[…] buy us and our land for bread, and we and our land will be servants unto Pharaoh” (Genesis 47:19).

We should not think that Tribulational developments will be delayed by the elements of Phase #3 not being completed. As was observed during the depths of the recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC), policymakers repeatedly ignored laws and broke the rules. They felt justified doing so, given the gravity of the crisis. Once the Antichrist is on the scene, having received the authority of 10 kings and the power of the Dragon, he can overrule all laws and conventions.

As such, the events of Revelation 13 can be much nearer than commonly thought. The final events of the Church Age and the preparatory ones enabling the events of the Tribulation happen “suddenly” (Luke 21:34; 1 Thessalonians 5:3) and over “one hour” (Rev 17:12).

Thoughts to Ponder

There is no more powerful, worldwide, earthly control mechanism possible of humans than an integrated “cashless” financial system. We see that the Beast readily takes advantage of mankind’s proclivity to worship Mammon. Christ admonished that “No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money. Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat or drink; or about your body, what you will wear. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothes?” (Matthew 6:24-25).

The monetary controls put in by the Second Beast “force” compliance and worship of the First Beast (this the Antichrist, who receives his power from the Dragon). The threat of losing access to food, drink and clothes drives Mammon worshipers to receive the “mark.”

On the other hand, those who reject the Beast`s entreaties will be those who do “not worry about” their lives, nor about what they will eat. They know that life is “more than food.”

The Bible says that all those who refused to worship the First Beast (“those who persevere to the end”: Matthew 24:13) will be killed. This is the policy of a discriminatory Tribulational regime (lasting 42 months), which seeks to consolidate obedience to the First Beast, rejecting God and the Lamb and all those whose names are in the Book of Life.

However, the Lord has the last say. John the Revelator shows us the final outcome:

“I saw thrones on which were seated those who had been given authority to judge. And I saw the souls of those who had been beheaded because of their testimony about Jesus and because of the word of God. They had not worshiped the beast or its image and had not received its mark on their foreheads or their hands. They came to life and reigned with Christ a thousand years” (Revelation 20:4).

Those who had shortsightedly given their worship to the Antichrist, also will encounter a discriminatory regime. We read how the third angel  “[…] said in a loud voice: If anyone worships the beast and its image and receives its mark on their forehead or on their hand, they, too, will drink the wine of God’s fury, which has been poured full strength into the cup of his wrath. They will be tormented with burning sulfur in the presence of the holy angels and of the Lamb. And the smoke of their torment will rise for ever and ever. There will be no rest day or night for those who worship the beast and its image, or for anyone who receives the mark of its name” (Revelation 14:9-11).

For resources on “endtime economics” and to subscribe to the free newsletter, Eternal Value Review, visit Wilfred’s website www.eternalvalue.com or contact him at: staff@eternalvalue.com

About the Author: Wilfred J. Hahn is a global economist/strategist. Formerly a top-ranked global analyst, research director for a major Wall Street investment bank, and head of Canada’s largest global investment operation, his writings focus on the endtime roles of money, economics and globalization. He has been quoted around the world and his writings reproduced in numerous other publications and languages. His 2002 book The Endtime Money Snare: How to live free accurately anticipated and prepared its readers for the Global Financial Crisis. His newest book, Global Financial Apocalypse Prophesied: Preserving true riches in an age of deception and trouble, looks further into the future.